PPO Morning Market: 5-Year Used-Car Trends Dealers Can’t Ignore

Today’s Morning Market update isn’t just about this week’s noise — it’s about the 5-year trends that are quietly reshaping your used-car department.

Retail used sales are still holding, but the data is clear: prices are high, turn is slowing, and inventory risk is creeping up. Here’s what the last five years are telling us — and what you should do with it today.

1. ATP Keeps Climbing While Turn Slows

For 3-year-old vehicles, the average transaction price has climbed from the high $20Ks to just over $31,000 in the last five years. At the same time, days to turn have drifted up into the low 40s — the slowest Q3 pace since 2017.

What this means: Late-model inventory is still valuable, but it’s not bulletproof. Holding out for “one more gross deal” is a lot riskier when shoppers are payment-stretched and new alternatives are coming online.

2. Inventory and Days’ Supply Are Quietly Stacking Up

Nationwide used supply has pushed toward the high 40s in days’ supply, with total retail used inventory up roughly 10% versus last year. The 5-year trend is steady: more metal on the ground, more competition for every click and lead.

What this means: Aging is going to hurt faster. If you’re still waiting until 60 or 75 days to get aggressive, you’re giving back margin you’ll never see again.

3. Affordability Pressure Is Reshaping Demand

Used-auto loan rates north of 14% and a five-year collapse in sub-$25K supply have changed how buyers shop. Fewer customers can comfortably finance late-model, higher-ATP units without stretching payment or term.

What this means:

• Under-$20K and payment-friendly inventory behaves like its own hot segment.
• Dealers who can source clean, mid-mileage units have a structural advantage.
• Value communication (CPO, warranty, recon transparency) matters more than slogans.

4. How to Adjust Your Used-Car Strategy Today

Here’s how I’d respond to these five-year trends from the tower:

• Move your “worry date” forward: Start tightening strategy around 30–35 days on 3-year-old units, not 60.
• Tier your inventory by risk: Late-model/high-ATP units get quicker pricing reviews and earlier exit plans.
• Double down on payment-based merchandising: Shoppers buy the monthly, not the metal.
• Push recon speed: Aging on the back lot is even more expensive in a slower-turn market.
• Track SRP/VDP on a handful of “signal vehicles”: Use them as your early warning system for softening demand.

5. Download the 5-Year Used-Car Trend Snapshot

If you want something you can drop on the desk or review with your used-car manager, I pulled today’s charts and takeaways into a one-page PDF.

📥 Download the PPO Morning Market – 5-Year Used-Car Trend Snapshot (PDF)

Optional: If you prefer a task-focused version, you can also grab the PPO Morning Market – Daily Dealer Checklist.

6. What Are You Seeing in Your Market?

These are national trends. Every zip code behaves differently.

Question for you: Are you feeling the slowdown yet — or are units still flying off your lot?

Drop your days’ supply and biggest used-car challenge in the comments or send me a note. I’m building this Morning Market series to be a practical, dealer-first tool — not just another headline.