China’s EV Oversupply Is About to Reshape U.S. Used-EV Pricing — Even If None of Those Cars Ever Reach the U.S.

By Craig White — Profitable Pre-Owned

Let’s start with the biggest misconception:

You are NOT going to see used Chinese EVs rolling into your appraisal lane anytime soon.
Tariffs, regulations, and federal security concerns make that extremely unlikely in the near term.

So if these cars aren’t coming here…

Why does China’s EV oversupply still matter to U.S. used-car managers?
Because China builds more EVs than the rest of the world combined — and when the world’s largest producer floods other markets, global EV pricing resets, even if zero of those cars touch American soil.

What’s Actually Happening in China

China spent more than a decade subsidizing EV growth. The result?

• Too many factories
• Too many EV brands
• Too much output
• Not enough domestic buyers

Beijing is now telling manufacturers to slow production and stop the price wars.

Oversupply has arrived — and China is pushing excess EVs into Europe, Southeast Asia, Australia, South America… everywhere except the U.S.

If Their Cars Aren’t Entering the U.S., Why Should U.S. Dealers Care?

Here’s the truth most GMs and Used Car Directors haven’t heard yet:

EV pricing, residuals, incentives, and depreciation are now global forces.
The U.S. is not insulated from what happens overseas.

1. Global EV Prices Influence U.S. Book Values

When Chinese EVs flood Europe and Asia with cheap inventory, used EV prices fall overseas.

Lenders and analysts see those depreciation curves — and tighten U.S. residual assumptions.

• Lower ACVs
• Lower trade values
• Lower lease residuals
• Faster depreciation

You don’t need Chinese EVs at a U.S. auction for the books to start moving.

2. OEMs Pump Up U.S. Incentives to Stay Competitive Globally

If Hyundai, VW, Mercedes, or GM get undercut overseas by Chinese EVs, they respond with higher incentives in the U.S.

And when new EV prices drop, used EVs drop twice as fast.

3. Fleets Overseas Get Flooded — Then Those Cars Hit Their Wholesale Markets

Cheap Chinese EVs are filling:

• rental fleets
• ride-hail fleets
• government fleets
• corporate fleets

Those units eventually hit international auctions, pushing global residual values downward — and those global trends flow into U.S. valuation models.

4. Your Risk Increases Even When Your Lane Looks Normal

Even if none of these cars enter the U.S., the impact shows up in your metrics:

• slower EV turn times
• tighter ACVs
• shrinking spreads
• more lender caution

You can get hit by global EV pricing without ever touching a Chinese EV.

What Dealers Should Be Doing Right Now

1. Build an EV-Specific Buy Box

• Choose which EV brands you trust
• Set max ACVs for each EV segment
• List EVs you will NOT retail

2. Track EV Performance Separately from ICE

• EV days to turn
• EV recon cost
• EV markdown frequency
• EV front + back gross

3. Prepare Fixed Ops for the Shift

• Train at least 1–2 EV techs
• Review high-voltage safety readiness (download the EV battery checklist)
• Create an EV service policy by nameplate

4. Ask Your Partners Better Questions

• How global EV pricing affects their models
• Which nameplates concern them
• Expected incentive trends for 2025–26
• What happens if EV resale values weaken further

Bottom Line

Chinese EVs don’t need to enter the U.S. for their oversupply to impact your used-car business.

The pressure will hit through:

• global depreciation
• global incentives
• global lender modeling
• global wholesale trends

The used-car managers who see this early will protect their stores — long before the rest of the industry understands what’s happening.